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The Evidence Base

Why Durable SkillsPredict Outcomes

Two decades of research converge on one finding: durable skills are roughly twice as predictive of adult outcomes as cognitive metrics. This is the evidence behind everything we measure.

Predictive Power

What Actually Predicts
How Students Turn Out

Tap or hover each bar for the research behind it. The metrics schools optimize for tell only half the story of who thrives after graduation.

Relative Predictive Power of Adult Outcomes
SAT / Standardized Tests Standardized test scores predict academic performance but leave most of the variance in long-run adult outcomes unexplained. Duckworth et al., 2007, Science · Heckman
SAT
Cognitive
GPA Grades capture achievement inside school, but the meta-analytic record shows they are far from the whole picture of later-life success. 18 meta-analyses, 2006–2023
GPA
Cognitive
Degree Attainment Credentials matter — but as a predictor of adult flourishing they sit alongside, not above, the skills that got students there. Heckman · Von Stumm
Degree
Cognitive
Durable Skills Across 18 meta-analyses spanning 2006–2023 and more than 500,000 students, durable skills prove roughly twice as predictive of adult outcomes as cognitive metrics. 18 meta-analyses, 2006–2023, N > 500,000
~2×
Durable Skills
Unmeasured
Cognitive Metrics Durable Skills
Relative predictive power of adult outcomes · normalized to cognitive-metric baseline
The Meta-Analytic Record

Not One Study.
Eighteen Meta-Analyses.

These findings don't rest on a single paper. They're the conclusion of nearly two decades of synthesized research across hundreds of thousands of students.

18
Meta-Analyses
Synthesized studies, not individual papers.
2006–2023
Years of Research
Nearly two decades of convergent findings.
>500K
Students Studied
Across grade levels, demographics, and geographies.
The Research Tradition

The Scholars
Behind The Science

The predictive power of durable skills is one of the most replicated findings in developmental science, built by researchers across psychology, economics, and education.

Angela Duckworth
Psychology · University of Pennsylvania
Science, 2007 KIPP West Point National Spelling Bee
Her landmark 2007 study in Science showed that grit predicts achievement beyond IQ and SAT scores — from cadet retention at West Point to finalists at the National Spelling Bee to student outcomes at KIPP schools.

Duckworth's work established that perseverance and passion for long-term goals carry predictive weight that cognitive measures alone cannot capture.

James Heckman
Economics · Nobel Laureate

Demonstrated the economic returns of non-cognitive skill development, showing these capabilities drive earnings and life outcomes.

Terrie Moffitt
Developmental Psychology

Longitudinal research linking childhood self-control to adult health, wealth, and wellbeing across decades of follow-up.

Richard Weissbourd
Harvard Graduate School of Education

Leads Harvard's Making Caring Common Project, studying how schools cultivate caring, ethical, and capable young people.

Carol Dweck
Psychology · Stanford

Pioneered growth mindset research — how students' beliefs about their own capability shape persistence and achievement.

Paul Tough
Author & Journalist

Synthesized the character-development research for a national audience, reframing how educators think about how children succeed.

Sophie von Stumm
Developmental Psychology

Research on curiosity — the "hungry mind" — as a core driver of academic performance alongside intelligence and effort.